A new major study has warned that if climate change continues on its current path one third of all plant and animal species will be extinct in the next 50 years.
Researchers from the University of Arizona analysed data relating to weather trends and recent extinctions to give a grim prediction – revealed in journal Science Daily.
The team surveyed data from 538 species and 581 sites across the world and found that 44% of species had gone extinct at one or more sites.
This ‘local extinction’ indicates to scientists that changing weather can have a severe impact on species, and therefore means climate change is a threat to their long term survival.
Evolutionary biologists Cristian Román-Palacios and John J. Wiens from the university led the study.
‘Detailed estimates’
“By analyzing the change in 19 climatic variables at each site, we could determine which variables drive local extinctions and how much change a population can tolerate without going extinct,” Román-Palacios said.
“We also estimated how quickly populations can move to try and escape rising temperatures. When we put all of these pieces of information together for each species, we can come up with detailed estimates of global extinction rates for hundreds of plant and animal species.”
The study identified maximum annual temperatures as the vital piece of information which indicates if a population will go extinct.
And the researchers found that average yearly temperatures showed smaller changes at sites with local extinction, even though average temperatures are widely used to report overall climate change.
‘Misleading’
“This means that using changes in mean annual temperatures to predict extinction from climate change might be positively misleading,” Wiens said.
Previous studies have focused on dispersal – or migration to cooler habitats – as a means for species to “escape” from warming climates.
However, the authors of the current study found that most species will not be able to disperse quickly enough to avoid extinction, based on their past rates of movement.
Instead, they found that many species were able to tolerate some increases in maximum temperatures, but only up to a point.
They found that about 50% of the species had local extinctions if maximum temperatures increased by more than 0.5 degrees Celsius, and 95% if temperatures increase by more than 2.9 degrees Celsius.
‘Choose your own adventure’
Projections of species loss depend on how much climate will warm in the future.
“In a way, it’s a ‘choose your own adventure,'” Wiens said. “If we stick to the Paris Agreement to combat climate change, we may lose fewer than two out of every 10 plant and animal species on Earth by 2070.
“But if humans cause larger temperature increases, we could lose more than a third or even half of all animal and plant species, based on our results.”
The paper’s projections of species loss are similar for plants and animals, but extinctions are projected to be two to four times more common in the tropics than in temperate regions.
“This is a big problem, because the majority of plant and animal species occur in the tropics,” Román-Palacios added.
Share this article to reveal the catastrophic damage climate change is doing to the planet.
Lifestyle
Vegan culture, food, beauty & more
First-ever plant-based training programme to launch in the UK
- Mohsina Dodhiya
- 22nd January 2021
“We hope to inspire and empower the next generation of chefs through the HIT course by highlighting just how easy it is to add creative meat-free dishes to menus.” HIT Training has launched a new plant-based culinary school in the UK. The chef academy has teamed up with meat-free pioneer, Quorn to present an eight-month …
Michelin star awarded to a vegan restaurant in France for the first time
- Mohsina Dodhiya
- 19th January 2021
Vegan eatery ONA has also been awarded Michelin’s green star – in recognition of its strong ethical practices. A vegan French restaurant has won a Michelin Guide star, the first for an establishment serving only meat-free products in France. Claire Vallee runs the ONA restaurant in the city of Ares, near Bordeaux, in south-west France. …
VEGAN MEMES
NEED A LAUGH?
QUIZZES
All the quizzes you love to binge!
QUIZ: If you score 11/12 on this quiz, you’re a verified vegan food expert
- Marlon Farrugia
- 10th January 2020
How much vegan knowledge do you have stored away? Do you have to Google your way through a shopping trip, or do you have all the bad E-numbers memorised? Find out now with this quiz. Marlon Farrugia Marlon Farrugia is a freelance writer from Brighton. He has been a dedicated vegan for many years, and …
QUIZ: What is your perfect Vegan Halloween Costume?
- Marlon Farrugia
- 13th October 2019
Spook Season approaches. There will be ghosts, goblins, ghouls, and glucose. You need a costume, and you want to it to show off your personality, which means VEGAN. But what to choose? Take our quiz to find out your perfect outfit. Marlon Farrugia Marlon Farrugia is a freelance writer from Brighton. He has been a …
QUIZ: What kind of vegetable are you?
- Marlon Farrugia
- 26th September 2019
“If you were a vegetable, what kind would you be?” A question that has tormented humanity throughout the ages – until now. Read: QUIZ: If you score 19/20 on THIS quiz, you’re a Vegan God Marlon Farrugia Marlon Farrugia is a freelance writer from Brighton. He has been a dedicated vegan for many years, and …