The AI based findings showed that exceeding the 2C increase has a 50% chance of happening by 2050.

A new study has indicated that the world is on track to exceed the internationally agreed-upon climate change threshold in about a decade,

Scientists of the study published in Monday’s journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences used artificial intelligence to conclude that global warming will hit 1.5 degrees Celsius between 2033 and 2035. This time frame matches what other scientists have said but is more precise. The world has already warmed 1.1 or 1.2 degrees since pre-industrial times.

The research also found that the Earth is likely to even surpass the 2°C warming threshold proposed by international scientists, potentially even as soon as the mid-21st century.

“We have very clear evidence of the impact on different ecosystems from the 1C of global warming that’s already happened,” Stanford University climate scientist  and co-author of the study Noah Diffenbaugh said.

“This new study, using a new method, adds to the evidence that we certainly will face continuing changes in climate that intensify the impacts we are already feeling.”

 AI study

The AI was trained to analyze a wide array of global climate model simulations and determine timelines for given temperature thresholds. The system predicted that if the pollution levels stay high, the world will reach the 2-degree mark by around 2050. Alarmingly, if the pollution levels are low, the mark will still be reached by 2054.

When scientists fed the model  data collected from 1980-2021, the AI was able to accurately identify both the 1.1 degree rise in temperature by 2022, as well as the patterns and speed of climate change in recent years.

Scientific community reaction

The AI results were deemed “pessimistic” since the 2021 report by the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, concluded that the 2-degree mark is unlikely to be reached if emissions decline to net zero before 2080.

climate scientist Natalie Mahowald from Cornell University, who wasn’t part of the AI study but was part of the IPCC, said AI is a powerful tool and could be used to produce better projections, but more evidence is needed before accepting its findings.

However, Diffenbaugh explained that climate scientists often run simulations using computers, with some models generating high results and some producing low results. They then assess which models are most accurate, typically by looking at past simulations or real-life events. However, the AI system focused on what is happening in the current climate system before displaying the results.

“We’re using this very powerful tool that is able to take information and integrate it in a way that no human mind is able to do, for better or for worse,” he said.

 What will happen if the world crosses the 2-degree mark?

Although half a degree of heating may seem inconsequential, the implications are exponential and the litany of effects from that warming will include more intense heat waves, frequent wildfires, more extreme rainfall and flooding, and longer periods of drought.

However, Diffenbaugh noted that the findings shouldn’t be viewed as a failure in terms of protecting the world; rather it should seek to encourage world policies to implement more strategies to stave off further aggravations in the effects and prepare to tackle the ones already surging.

But, while climate negotiators at climate summit assure that they have managed to “keep 1.5 alive, there’s a long way to go if we want to make tangible progress toward a more sustainable future.

“Managing these risks effectively will require both greenhouse gas mitigation and adaptation,” Diffenbaugh said.

“We are not adapted to the global warming that’s already happened and we certainly are not adapted to what is certain to be more global warming in the future.”

 “Stabilizing the climate system will require reaching net zero”, he added.

“There are a lot of emissions globally—and it’s a big ship to turn around.”

Share this story: Earth  likely  to cross critical climate limits in 10-12 years, AI-based study finds.

Mohsina Dodhiya

See author's posts